polling

Women and Men Disagree on Kavanaugh After Sexual Assault Allegation
Poll finds sharp gender difference in views of Supreme Court nominee

Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh, shown here with his wife Ashley, and daughters Margaret, left, and Liza, has been portrayed as a champion of young women. In the aftermath of a sexual assault allegation, though, women are not so sure, a new poll finds. (Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call)

Americans became sharply divided on Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh in the days after a woman came forward accusing him of a drunken sexual assault while they were teenagers, according to a nonpartisan poll released Wednesday.

The fault line fell along gender. Forty percent of male respondents to an Economist/YouGov poll had a somewhat or very favorable opinion of Kavanaugh versus just 26 percent of women.

What Constitutes a Wave Election?
With half of independents still up for grabs, a blue wave is not a foregone conclusion

Democrats may be predicting a blue wave, but surveys show many independents are still up for grabs and Republicans could yet win that battle of ideas, Winston writes. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call file photo)

OPINION — Is 2018 going to be a wave election? The better question is: “What constitutes a wave election?”

In a CNN interview last week, House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi told Christiane Amanpour, “People ask me, is this a tsunami or is it wave? And I said, in neither case, it’s many drops of water and it’s all very close. So it won’t be a big margin, it will be small margins in many races that will produce the victory.”

Rep. Scott Taylor Falling Behind Challenger After Ballot Forgery Scandal, Democratic Poll Shows
Democrat Elaine Luria is challenging freshman lawmaker in Virginia’s 2nd District

An internal poll for Democrat Elaine Luria showed her leading Rep. Scott Taylor in Virginia’s 2nd District amid lingering questions about Taylor’s role in a fraudulent ballot petition scandal. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call)

Democrat Elaine Luria led Rep. Scott Taylor by 8 points in Virginia’s 2nd District amid lingering questions about the Republican lawmaker’s role in a ballot signature scandal, according to an internal poll released by Luria’s campaign Tuesday.

The survey, conducted by Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group, gave the Navy veteran a 51 percent to 43 percent lead over Taylor. A June survey by the same firm showed her trailing by 4 points, the campaign said.

Democratic Poll Shows Tight Race for Ross’ Seat in Florida
Trump carried the 15th District by 10 points in 2016

Florida Rep. Dennis Ross is not running for re-election. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call file photo)

Democrat Kristen Carlson narrowly led Republican Ross Spano, well within the margin of error, in a poll of Florida’s open 15th District commissioned by her campaign. 

Carlson led Spano 48 percent to 47 percent, with 5 percent of likely voters undecided.

Surprisingly, the Senate Is Now in Play
Despite heavy odds stacked against them, Democrats are in the hunt

Rep. Kyrsten Sinema, D-Ariz., must win her Arizona Senate race for Democrats to have a chance at winning back the chamber. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call)

ANALYSIS — I have argued repeatedly that while the House is up for grabs — and indeed likely to flip to the Democrats in November — the Senate is not in play. I now believe that it is, so I must revise and extend my remarks.

Only about three weeks ago, I reiterated my view that Democrats didn’t have a path to a net gain of two Senate seats, which they need for a chamber majority. But a flurry of state and national polls conducted over the past few weeks suggest Democratic prospects have improved noticeably, giving the party a difficult but discernible route for control.

Why Voters Are Still Wary 10 Years After the Economic Collapse
Despite many positive economic signs, people have long memories

In the face of today’s extraordinary bull market and other positive economic signs, memories of the Great Recession remain strong for many voters, Winston writes. (Drew Angerer/Getty Images file photo)

OPINION — This September marks the 10th anniversary of the economic collapse and failure of Wall Street banks and companies. It recalls one of the most scarring events for Americans, as they remember the fears, anxieties and financial trauma that they, their family and friends, their communities, and the country as a whole experienced. 

In exit polls from the 2008 presidential election, 85 percent of voters said they were worried about the direction of the nation’s economy, with 50  percent “very worried.” Eighty-one percent said they feared that the economic crisis would harm their family’s finances over the next year, with almost half “very worried.” That level of personal concern about finances doesn’t go away overnight.

Cory Gardner Renews Call for Russia to Be Declared Sponsor of Terrorism After Reports on Sonic Attacks
Colorado Republican also wants floor time for Russia sanctions package

Sen. Cory Gardner, R-Colo., is making another push to declare Russia a state sponsor of terrorism. (Sarah Silbiger/CQ Roll Call file photo)

A recent report that Russia is likely behind mysterious “sonic attacks” on U.S. diplomatic personnel in Cuba and China has led a Republican senator to renew his call to designate Russia a state sponsor of terror.

Sen. Cory Gardner has introduced legislation that would require the State Department to make such a determination about the regime of Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Rep. Mia Love’s Campaign Gamed Primary Fundraising Laws, FEC Finds
GOP congresswoman’s campaign will return or reclassify less than a third of funds called into question

Rep. Mia Love, R-Utah, improperly raised more than $1 million for a primary race she knew she would not have, the FEC contends. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call file photo)

Rep. Mia Love’s re-election campaign copped to improperly raising money for a primary race that it knew was unlikely to take place, the campaign’s lawyers wrote in a letter to the Federal Election Commission.

The GOP congresswoman’s campaign was responding to a letter from the FEC in which the commission scrutinized $1,153,624 Love raised and classified as primary election funds for her 4th District seat in Utah.

Democratic Poll Shows Neck-and-Neck Race for DeSantis’ Florida Seat
Democrat Nancy Soderbeg was essentially tied with Republican Michael Waltz

Florida Rep. Ron DeSantis is vacating his 6th District seat for a gubernatorial run, and the race to replace him could be competitive, a new Democratic poll showed. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call file photo)

Democrat Nancy Soderberg and Republican Michael Waltz were essentially tied in a poll commissioned by the Democrat’s campaign in an open Florida district that President Donald Trump carried by double digits.

Waltz led Soderberg 47 percent to 46 percent in the 6th District poll, shared first with Roll Call. Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research surveyed 400 likely voters from Sept. 4-6, with 31 percent reached by cell phone. The poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.

Democratic Poll Shows Tight Race in Georgia’s 6th District
GOP Rep. Karen Handel faces Democrat Lucy McBath in November

Democrat Lucy McBath, here at an April event in New York City with congressional candidates, is challenging GOP Rep. Karen Handel in Georgia’s 6th District. (Dia Dipasupil/Getty Images file photo)

Democrat Lucy McBath, who became politically active after losing her teenage son to gun violence, was in a tight race with Republican Rep. Karen Handel in Georgia’s 6th District, a poll conducted for the Democrat’s campaign found. 

Handel led McBath 49 percent to 47 percent in the race for the suburban Atlanta seat. Four percent were undecided. Handel, who won a highly publicized special election last year against Democrat Jon Ossoff, is seeking her first full term this November.