Keith Rothfus

Rating Changes in 19 House Races, All Toward Democrats
In total, 68 GOP-held seats are now rated competitive

New Mexico Democrat Xochitl Torres Small is running for the seat GOP Rep. Steve Pearce is vacating to run for governor. The 2nd District race is now rated Leans Republican. (Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call file photo)

Despite forecasts of a blue tsunami, it’s still not guaranteed that Democrats will win back the House majority. But the playing field of competitive House races is expanding and shifting to almost exclusively Republican territory.

After the latest round of changes, Inside Elections now has 68 Republican seats rated as vulnerable compared to just 10 vulnerable Democratic seats. And there are at least a couple dozen more GOP-held seats that could develop into competitive races in the months ahead.

The Political Turnpike Runs Through Pennsylvania
Resignations, retirements and redistricting scramble the midterm calculus

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If you’re confused about what comes next in Pennsylvania, even after this week’s primary elections set the midterm slate, don’t worry. That just means you’re paying attention. 

November House Matchups Almost Set in Pennsylvania
Democrats eye several pickup opportunities under new congressional map

A cutout of Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick, R-Pa., at a protest outside his town hall meeting in Bensalem, Pennsylvania., in August 2017. (Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call file photo)

Pennsylvania hosted its first primaries Tuesday under a new congressional map, solidifying general election matchups in an important swing state. And the Keystone State appears set to add at least one woman to its all-male congressional delegation in the next Congress.

Democrats view Pennsylvania as key to their effort to flip 23 seats and win back the House, eyeing between three and five pickups in the state alone. Tuesday’s primaries set the stage for some competitive races in November, as well as likely new members of Congress in some of the open seats. 

Pennsylvania Remapped: Primaries Enter New Territory
Keystone State is hosting several competitive House primaries

After losing a special election in March, Pennsylvania state Rep. Rick Saccone seeks another shot at the House on Tuesday from the new 14th District. (Jeff Swensen/Getty Images file photo)

Tuesday’s primary elections in Pennsylvania will be the first contests under the state’s new congressional map, and they will set the November matchups in a state that has seen a surge of House candidates.

Ninety-four people — 59 Democrats and 35 Republicans — filed to run for Congress in the Keystone State this cycle. The high number of candidates is due in part to several open-seat races.

Six Months Out: The 10 Most Vulnerable House Incumbents
Republicans fill out the list

As he was for much of 2016, Iowa Rep. Rod Blum is back at the top of the list of most vulnerable incumbents. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call file photo)

With the House GOP on defense in a difficult national environment, the 10 most vulnerable incumbents six months out from Election Day are all Republicans.

Republicans have pickup opportunities in November, but this is a ranking of the incumbents most likely to lose, not of seats most likely to flip — so there are no open seats on the list.

Rothenberg’s Dangerous Dozen Open House Seats
Republicans find themselves more on the defensive as November looms

Former Pennsylvania Republican Rep. Patrick Meehan, seen here after being pulled from the Congressional Baseball Game in 2014, has left behinda an open seat that is the most likely to flip party control, Rothenberg writes. (Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call file photo)

Yes, it’s time for another of my “dangerous dozen open House seats” columns, which I have been writing since shortly after the establishment of the Jamestown Settlement (or so it seems).

This cycle’s version has a plethora of seats to choose from, given the 38 Republican and 19 Democratic seats where an incumbent is not seeking re-election, either because he or she is retiring or running for a different office. (The number does not include those districts where a special election has already filled a vacancy or will be held before November.)

Democratic Challenger to Conor Lamb Drops From Race, Endorses Him
Lamb running unopposed for Democratic nomination in PA’s new 17th District

Speaker of the House Paul Ryan, R-Wisc., holds a swearing-in ceremony for Rep.-elect Conor Lamb, D-Pa., in the Capitol on Thursday, April 12, 2018. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call)

The path to represent Pennsylvania’s new 17th District has gotten clearer for Rep. Conor Lamb after another Democrat dropped from the race Sunday to support the new congressman.

Democratic candidate Ray Linsenmayer appeared at joint news conference at Lamb’s campaign headquarters in Carnegie, Pennsylvania, to tell volunteers from both campaigns he was suspending his campaign and throwing his support behind Lamb, who currently represents Pennsylvania’s old 18th District.

Saccone Concedes to Lamb in Pennsylvania Special Election
Republican says 18th District needs a voice in Congress

State Rep. Rick Saccone, the GOP nominee in Pennsylvania’s 18th District, has conceded to Democrat Conor Lamb. (Bridget Bowman/CQ Roll Call file photo)

Pennsylvania Republican state Rep. Rick Saccone announced late Wednesday that he conceded the 18th District special election to Democrat Conor Lamb. But it could be several days before Lamb is sworn into office.

Lamb, a Marine veteran and federal prosecutor, narrowly won the March 13 special election to replace former GOP Rep. Tim Murphy, who resigned amid scandal after revelations that the anti-abortion lawmaker encouraged his mistress to have an abortion.

Supreme Court Spikes Pennsylvania GOP’s Final Hopes Over New Map
Court-drawn map to take effect for 2018 midterms

The United States Supreme Court building in Washington, DC on December 1, 2016. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call file photo)

The Supreme Court on Monday denied an appeal by Pennsylvania Republican lawmakers to block a new congressional map ahead of this year’s midterm elections.

The decision to turn down the application for stay killed the GOP’s final hope to block the lines drawn by the Pennsylvania state Supreme Court after it ruled the Republican-controlled General Assembly’s 2011 map represented an unconstitutional partisan gerrymander. 

Judges Strike Down Pennsylvania GOP Complaint Over Redrawn Congressional Map
Three-judge federal panel dismisses Republican lawsuit over new court-drawn map

Rep. Lou Barletta, R-Pa., is among the lawmakers listed as plaintiffs against the new congressional map in Pennsylvania. He is running for Senate in the Keystone State. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call file photo)

A federal district court declined a long-shot request Monday from Pennsylvania Republican lawmakers to block a new congressional map as the 2018 elections near. The Supreme Court has yet to act on a similar request from the lawmakers.

Eight Republican House members from the Pennsylvania delegation joined Republican state lawmakers as plaintiffs in the lawsuit, which a three-judge panel dismissed.